MUCK YOU! Nathan Daschle's Bold Analysis & Surprising Predictions

David Wheeler: 00:00:00

Hey, folks, this is David Wheeler with Muck You!, and we've got a very special guest today.

Somebody with a very famous last name and a very famous face himself. His name is Nathan Daschle. Welcome to the show, Nathan.

Nathan Daschle: 00:00:18

Thank you so much, David. It's great to be here. I appreciate. Appreciate you inviting me.

David Wheeler: 00:00:23

We were reminiscing before we went on air that the last time we saw each other was on an airplane coming out of Montana after the dga. I. I kind of missed those DGA days when Vilsack was there and everybody.

Nathan Daschle: 00:00:37

Yeah, there were some great governors back then. Yeah. Really great group. There's some great governors now, but. But I really enjoyed my time at the dga.

David Wheeler: 00:00:45

Yeah. And that event was with the late Ted Turner, I remember, in Montana, Big Sky. That was a terrific event.

Nathan Daschle: 00:00:54

Yeah, that's right. You got a great memory.

David Wheeler: 00:00:56

Well, I tend to remember the things that are positive. And anything that involves a Dashiell or a Vilsack is. Is a good memory for me to have. So Joe Manchin was there and a bunch of other governors.

So, Nathan, tell us what you've been up to the last couple years. I know you're. You've got your own firm now and you're working on some races, but tell us reintroduce, folks.

Nathan Daschle: 00:01:23

Sure. About 11 years ago, my father and I started a lobbying group, a public policy group. We do.

I call it a lobbying group because that's the easiest bucket that people can fit us in.

But obviously, you know, in: 2026

The other firm was named after the late Howard Baker, who you remember was a former Republican Senate leader. And I thought there was a great. Just synergy between Daschle and Baker.

You had two former Senate majority leaders back in an era when things really got done, when people worked together, when public service really was something held in esteem. And. And so those are the principles that we've tried to bring to the firm. I'm now the CEO. My father's the chair.

I have the blessing of working with him every day. And we have a team of 20 outstanding people.

David Wheeler: 00:02:29

That's terrific. And you're based in D.C. or Arlington or where are you based?

Nathan Daschle: 00:02:34

In D.C. okay, cool.

David Wheeler: 00:02:36

So what's a typical day for you? What. What are you working on? What clients? Obviously you don't want to talk about clients, but what sort of client work are you doing?

Nathan Daschle: 00:02:45

Well, our firm does a little bit of everything, especially after we merged and we're a bipartisan firm. I'll add about half Dem, half Republican. And there's. We're big enough that there's no issue that we can't work on.

Where we specialize, where we have a cluster of clients, is in healthcare, defense appropriations, energy. I also work with the governments of Japan and Taiwan, which are fantastic clients to work with, and I really enjoy that.

But, you know, one of the things that we do for our clients, for all clients, is we try to give them information that they're not going to get retreating in the press. And largely that is analysis. You know, there's the analysis where we apply what we know of dc what we know of politics.

We try to help clients see around the corner by giving them good, strong political intelligence and analysis. So I spent a lot of time doing that. And then, of course, there's the. When people think about the D.C. cocktail circuit, it's a real thing.

That is a real thing. And for better or for worse, I mean, you know, my role is not to judge the system. It's just serve my clients the best I can. But.

But I do a lot of that in the evenings.

David Wheeler: 00:04:04

Good for you. It sounds like, no, no day is, is the same. And so what about politics?

How do you guys touch on politics these days, whether it's Democrats or Republicans? What, what's your interaction there?

Nathan Daschle: 00:04:19

Well, we support a lot of candidates. The DB3 as a firm, we give as individuals more money than probably most PACs give. We host a lot of fundraisers for some candidates. We advise them.

Although in reality, in reality, even when candidates say they want your advice, they don't want your advice. We don't, we don't take everyone up on it when they say they want our advice. We try to figure if there's a area where we can actually be a value add.

But, you know, we're the Dasher group. Back when we establish, we did a lot more fundraising on the Democratic side than the Baker Group did on the Republican side.

And that's kind of carried over. So still, DB3 does a lot more for blue than for red, but that's a big part of what we do.

The other thing that I do is I put together with the help of the team, of course, both bullet alerts, where we kind of give a one page bulleted text on what we think is going to happen on an issue that's relevant at the time. And we always try to. Our criteria is say something that no one else is saying because we want to be a value add.

We don't do our bullet alerts regularly because then you're going to force yourself to say things when things don't need to be said. We do them as needed. I also do my guilty pleasures is a PowerPoint deck on the races where we just kind of give our analysis.

And to make it fun, my rule is there are no toss ups. I make a call on every single race. And sometimes we write, sometimes we'll be wrong.

But I think people like us taking a stand on who we think is going to win. If we had to go to Vegas and bet our house on a candidate on whom we bet, that's what the approach that we take.

David Wheeler: 00:06:22

And is that just for your clients or is that something public?

Nathan Daschle: 00:06:25

It's public. We, we send them out to our clients first and then after a few days we post them on our website.

David Wheeler: 00:06:31

Okay, cool. And so where, where could we see that?

Nathan Daschle: 00:06:34

If you go to www.db-3.co it's called the, it's called DB3 Intel. And we have everything we send to our clients, we post there.

David Wheeler: 00:06:49

All right, cool. And we'll link that in the show notes to make sure folks can go see this sounds like it's an interesting take. And good for you for not hedging.

You're taking some risk by getting out there. All right, so let's talk about your intel. What are you hearing and what are you seeing as far as races?

And obviously you're not talking on behalf of any clients here. This is just Nathan Dashiell talking to David about racist. But what are you seeing and hearing in. In these Senate races and others?

Nathan Daschle: 00:07:20

Well, so we did a Senate deck at the end of last year and in November last year, and I gave the Democrats a 1 in 10 chance of taking the Senate. It was a real uphill climb. And the reason is to take the Senate, Democrats have to win in red states.

ate race in a red State since: 2018

There are seven purple states in my analysis, but 43 states are either blue or red. And Dems don't have any senators right now from red state. So we'd have to do that at least twice. So I thought that would be an uphill battle.

But in my most recent deck, which I did just A couple of weeks ago. Now I give dems about a 1 in 3, maybe even a 1 in 2 chance of taking the Senate.

Their odds have been, have dramatically improved because the environment has dramatically improved for Democrats. And that's why we are competitive and actually winning in the polls in some states like Alaska, which is just wild.

Now that's going to be a close race, but, but I think we win Alaska. You know, I think the Dems either either win the Senate or get very close.

David Wheeler: 00:08:36

Sorry. That is definitely sweet news to a lot of people's ears. And what is your intel report based on? What sort of data? What sort of metrics?

Nathan Daschle: 00:08:49

When we look at the empirical data is really polling, fundraising, press, other people's analysis. We look at all that, but I'd say that's about, that's about 50% of it. And then the other 50% is our analysis.

What do we make of all that and more importantly, what do we make of the environment? Because one of my theories right now is that in general, voters don't slip their tickets anymore.

I mean, in certain occasions they do, but it is dramatically declined. And I'll give you an example, give you a couple examples.

The Senate map, when you put it right next to the presidential map, it's almost the exact same. There's only one state that's different and that's Maine because Susan Collins is right now Republican in a blue state.

Other than that, the Senate map looks just like the presidential map.

Democrat for president since: 1968

d that's just in fact, in the: 1980

But the second thing is 20 years ago, Senate candidates and the presidential nominee in their own state would have on average a separation of nine points. So that's be the gap between how they performed. Now it's on average 2.7 points.

So they're getting almost the same vote totals as the presidential candidate. So your question was where does our analysis come from?

And a lot of it is thinking through if we, if we believe that voters are nationalizing their vote and they're really voting for the teams red or blue, then while candidates certainly Matter. The biggest driver right now is how voters feel about national politics.

David Wheeler: 00:10:55

Well, that's really interesting. I don't think I've heard that sort of analysis. Obviously, people rely on polls and other things, but that's an interesting way to look at it.

So here's a broad question, and you touched on this a little bit because I'm old enough to remember the Dakotas being Democrats. How is it in your analysis, you know, just, you've been around the block, you've seen a lot of data and a lot of information.

How is it that we get from, you know, Tom Harkin to Joni Ernst and from, you know, your dad to Mike Rounds, how is it we got here? They're just, they're polar opposites.

Nathan Daschle: 00:11:38

Yeah, they really are.

And I don't know, I mean, it'd be interesting to look at the voter registration numbers, but it's happened in the state legislature as well that, you know, Democrats are not as, they're not as much of a percentage of the state legislature as they used to be.

But I think federally what happened was voters started thinking they're going to vote by team, they're not going to vote for candidates so much as they're going to vote by team.

David Wheeler: 00:12:08

So.

Nathan Daschle: 00:12:08

And that really was a result of the increase in partisanship that we've had. And the increase in partisanship is real. I think it's something that we all feel, but I don't think it's healthy for the country.

But one of its effects is that voters vote for a team voting. They really do that down the ballot. And so their views of what's happening in the White House really drives their views for everything else.

And since South Dakota pretty consistently voted for Republican for president, South Dakota started voting Republican down ballot. And I think Republicans just kind of took the momentum and ran with it.

David Wheeler: 00:12:47

Yeah, it's also they, you know, they, they saw the trend probably, and they're very good at extrapolating and figuring out how to scale it, unlike the Democrats, which, you know, we used to have the data advantage during the Obama years. But I think that's flipped back to the Republicans again for some reason.

And do you see a correlation between that thinking in midterms as well, or is that just every four.

Nathan Daschle: 00:13:14

That is a great question. And when this is done, David, I'm going to send you, I have a deck on the death of split ticket voting. I'm going to send it to you. Okay, great.

But one of the slides in there is that, yes, this trend happens in midterms as well, the midterms end up being no different than the years which we have a presidential election. The correlation between the Senate vote and the presidential vote from the prior election is strikingly similar.

David Wheeler: 00:13:43

And so it's this midterm would be Team Trump. Am I, is that correct? Team Red?

Nathan Daschle: 00:13:50

You mean in general or.

David Wheeler: 00:13:52

Well, on the Republican side. So the Republicans have a quote unquote leader.

Obviously you and I would probably differ on whether he's really a leader or not, but yes, and, but the Democrats don't necessarily have a leader or, or do we?

Nathan Daschle: 00:14:07

No, it's very true, we don't. And I'll ask the first answer the first question first, which was since Trump won the presidential, will he win, will Republicans win the Senate?

And I think there, where Democrats have an opportunity to win, the majority is first in the purple states. And we've got a few of those, but, and there's actually one blue state where we can pick up a Senate seat and that's Maine. Again, Susan Collins.

And there's some purple seats, but unfortunately we're defending those. But then there's some red states where this kind of goes against my theory, but I'll explain why I think it doesn't.

But Alaska, Iowa, possibly even Texas. And then, you know, we are still running strong candidates in Florida and Mississippi, so you can't write those off as well. Those are all red states.

But I think some states like Iowa and possibly Alaska and eventually Texas, not yet, but eventually will be purple states. So I think what we're seeing is the, is the beginning of them transitioning to purple states and that's the margin where Democrats can win.

David Wheeler: 00:15:15

Gotcha. All right. Well, you touched on South Dakota a little bit. And, and as you know, I've got a candidate there that I like a lot.

Brian Bengs is an independent. He ran as a Democrat against Thune in 22. He's running again, this time as an independent.

There's a poll out with a head to head match up and three way race. There's a Democrat in the race, obviously, and then the existing incumbent. Did you get a chance to look at that poll I sent you at all or.

Nathan Daschle: 00:15:48

I did, yes. Thank you very much.

David Wheeler: 00:15:51

And what is that, what does that tell you about this race? And, and I want bark off. This is not, you don't need to ingratiate, gratiate yourself with anybody other than, you know, the world.

But what, what, what do you see in that poll?

Nathan Daschle: 00:16:09

Well, one of the things that stands out immediately is the one thing that hasn't really changed about the South Dakota electorate is that they still want authenticity, they still want competence, and they still want independence. And those things are things that South Dakota has wanted for a long time. And that's why I think the Republican primaries playing out the way it is.

And that's clearly what Brian Banks is, is seeing as well. And that's the lane where he, he does have a path, for sure. And it's really the same as Doug Osborne in Nebraska.

Now, the thing that, that caused me concern for Brian is that Donald Trump is still very popular in South Dakota. And, you know, according to the poll, and I haven't, I didn't do my homework and look, see if this number's right.

the poll says that Trump won: 6334

Since voters tend to, sometimes they tend to change their minds after an election, that's probably roughly how popular he is right now in popping South Dakota. Although actually, I imagine it's less because nationally he's so unpopular. But nevertheless, his, his approval rating is above 50 in South Dakota.

And if voters are going to have Trump in mind when they vote, that's going to be a big obstacle to overcome.

David Wheeler: 00:17:35

Yeah, I agree. I agree.

And obviously Rounds is tied to Trump pretty closely and has been able to kind of stay under the radar and that and not get Trump angry at him. Go ahead.

Nathan Daschle: 00:17:51

Well, I was going to say one of the things, you know, let's go back to the poll in Brian's race after this, but I, that I just.

One of the things that I took away from the recent primary is that the South Dakota Republican Party is kind of going through kind of an identity crisis right now. And I think this is, this is an environment where voters don't want to be told who to vote for.

And I think in the Republican gubernatorial primary, voters felt that Dusty Johnson, he was next in line. He's who the establishment was essentially saying, that's who you should vote for. And then you had Dayton come out. Did I pronounce his name right?

You know, out of nowhere to win the primary. And I think that was an expression of voters saying, no, we're going to pick. Don't tell us who to pick.

And that's Rounds, I think Will know he's in a strong position to win. Although I really, I'm rooting for Brian.

But, you know, th, if, if somebody could emerge to challenge student in a primary and if the environment stays the same, that could be a real threat.

David Wheeler: 00:18:59

Yeah, the number that was really interesting to me was Rounds approval rating was you know, in the low or mid-30s.

Nathan Daschle: 00:19:09

Yes.

David Wheeler: 00:19:09

And, and then in those head to heads, Brian was even. And the Democrats seemed to have reached a ceiling of about 25, 30%.

And, and that's, that's typical in, in these red states where the Democrat, unfortunately, just because you have D behind your name, you, you only reach a, a certain level. You'll never get beyond that because it's such a red state. But Brian, I think has a shot if the Democrat would stand aside in the.

Similar to what, as you mentioned, what happened in Nebraska.

So what, who, who else do you see out there as kind of a rising star that maybe is off the radar of our listeners and some of the other national Democrats?

Nathan Daschle: 00:19:58

Well, I'll tell you one rising star who's in South Dakota, not a candidate, but more of an operative, is Yuva Shandana. He just started working with the Democrats a few months ago and very talented person and I hope he sticks around on the national scene.

You know, there is a lot of buzz around Jon Ossoff, the senator from Georgia. He's really stayed under the radar. So he still has that newness appeal to him.

A lot of people are talking about him and a lot of people are talking about Graham Plotner in Maine. Graham is a very skilled communicator. He's got a good instinct for politics. I personally, he's not my brand of vodka.

I don't care for a lot of his approach and the way he's handled these stories, but I think it's very possible, if not probable, that voters in Maine will overlook that and elect him in the Senate this fall.

David Wheeler: 00:20:56

Yeah, and you know, I agree with you. I mean, I think he's got a good shot. I tend to think more about winning than personal character of the candidate because nobody's perfect.

And as you know, it's tough being a candidate, man. I mean, tough on the family and tough on the candidate and himself.

And so I tend to kind of give candidates a little bit more of a pass maybe than some people, but, you know, the guy's doing something right. And at the end of the day, the electorate in Maine are the ones that voted for him.

You know, it wasn't like somebody forced them to vote for Graham and he won, you know, substantially.

Nathan Daschle: 00:21:43

Yeah, he was in the 70s. Exactly.

David Wheeler: 00:21:48

So we can hold our nose against some of the crap he's done in the past, but God forbid somebody look under my hood. I mean, that would be a frightening matter. So. And who else. Who else on the Senate front? Let's.

I don't want you to make a prediction unless you want to. But who's going to be the big upset in this, this round of midterms, do you think?

Nathan Daschle: 00:22:15

I think it will be Josh Turek if you consider that an upset. Ashley Hinson is favored, but I think Turek is an exceptional candidate.

And Iowa, I think Iowa is a more practical state than it is sort of acted in the last few election cycles. I think it's, it fundamentally is not, not as red as the elections might make it appear.

So I think there's a real, environmentally, I think there's an opportunity for Josh and, and the environment. This is one of those states where at the right time the right candidate can win. And this is definitely the right time.

And I think Dirk is the right candidate.

David Wheeler: 00:22:56

Yeah. And he's younger and has a military background similar to what Ernst had.

And then you've got Rob sand there too, who's going to be a very strong candidate for governor and has performed well. And you're right, it's a, it's more of a, used to be more of a populous state similar to the Dakotas, I think.

Nathan Daschle: 00:23:17

Yes.

David Wheeler: 00:23:18

And you think the Democrats can get their shit together again? I mean the Democrats used to be, you know, under Vilsack and Culver and those guys were pretty organized.

You think they can get their shit together again?

Nathan Daschle: 00:23:30

I think so because you know, politics now is so much more personality driven than party driven and just in terms of the execution of the campaign. And Sans is an incredibly strong candidate for governor. He'll be at the top of the ticket.

And Turek, you know, when he ran in the primary he was down in the polls for a while and then he started spending money explaining his story. Never ran an ad negative against his primary opponent, but he was able to raise a lot of money both to the campaign and outside groups.

Came in with a lot of money and he won and he turned those poll numbers around and that's exactly what he'll have to do to win the general. So I am confident that he can win. And you know, I'm feeling good about Mary Peltola in Alaska.

I think again, at the right time the right candidate can win and she is just undoubtedly the right candidate. She's an exceptional candidate, interestingly, somewhat like Brian Banks in South Dakota.

She's not running as an independent, but she's very much keeping her distance from the national Democratic Party.

David Wheeler: 00:24:41

Right? Yeah. Probably because she believes that too. I mean, yeah, Chuck Schumer is not exactly the guy you want to run run with. In Alaska or South Dakota.

Nathan Daschle: 00:24:50

You don't want his endorsement?

David Wheeler: 00:24:52

No, no, no. And I think leaders. Huber's done a lot of good stuff, but he's passed a sell date. But we don't.

We're not going to go there with the former majority leader, son.

Nathan Daschle: 00:25:03

So, folks, we.

David Wheeler: 00:25:04

We've had a terrific conversation today with Nathan Daschle of DB3 out of Washington, a lobbying and consulting firm. You've given us some insights on different races you guys are taking a look at, and I hope to have you back on again soon. Nathan, I'd love to.

Nathan Daschle: 00:25:24

I love to. This has been a lot of fun, David.

David Wheeler: 00:25:26

I really enjoy. Yeah, well, I appreciate it and I appreciate your honesty on some of the races and, and giving us a little bit of insight.

So if you could give folks your website over time, they've got some free information over there and some predictions on some elections.

Nathan Daschle: 00:25:40

Yes, and I will. Today I'm going to post my deck on the death of split ticket voting because it's such a core thesis to the analysis.

But the website is www.db-3.co and where you want to go is to the DB3 intel tab. It's right there at the top of the page. And you'll get all the decks and all of our.

David Wheeler: 00:26:03

Yep.

Or if there's any other clients out there that are interested in a terrific firm with some terrific people in Washington, you can learn more in there as well. So you got a pretty broad audience. So, again, Nathan Dashiell, thank you so much for joining us on Machu. And we'll talk to you on the other side.

Take care.

Nathan Daschle: 00:26:22

You got it. Thanks, David.